4 · The model
A simple, falsifiable scoring model
Our case, prospective. Not a finding of any court.
Each document is scored on six structural criteria. Each criterion scores 0 (not present on the record), 1 (present but contested or SOURCE PENDING) or 2 (present on the face of a held record). Timing adds one point per dated coincidence within 45 days of a decisive moment, unless the record itself explains it.
D = S × (1 + T) · S = S1 + … + S6 (max 12)
Scores
Rows A–E are the case documents. K1–K3 are controls scored with the same rules: an ordinary possession order, the 1987 judgment itself, and a pro-family record. If the controls scored as high as the case documents, the rubric would be measuring noise.
Mean structural score: 5.6 for the case documents and 2.7 for the controls. Mean D: 10 against 2.7. The reasoning behind every score is in model.json.
Timing points
The timing test across the whole record
Hand-picked coincidences prove little, because we chose them. So we ran the same 45-day rule over every square on the chessboard that carries a day-level date between 1900 and 1990: 190 records. Decisive moments: the limitation date (11 Dec 1974), the death of Mary (Nancy) Williams (26 Mar 1983), the Court of Appeal judgment (31 Jul 1987), the House of Lords refusal (3 Mar 1988), the demolition (6 Dec 1988) and the death of William (Billy) Buckler (29 Apr 1990). Same-day records were excluded.
Black squares (actions, framings, omissions)
24%
33 of 138 within 45 days
White squares (the family’s record)
17%
9 of 52 within 45 days
The difference is 7 points. Shuffling the black and white labels 20,000 times gives a difference at least that large 22% of the time (p ≈ 0.22). That is not significant. Both rates are far above the 1.6% expected for random dates, but that is because the record is densest where the litigation was, and most of the hits are the eviction week of late 1988.
How to prove this model wrong
These are stated before the records arrive. Each names the result that would lower the score.
- The 1955 order (A). If the original order defines “the farm” by a plan that excludes the farmhouse group, or names Mary as a party, S1 and S2 fall to 0.
- The 1969 deed (C). If the 31 December 1969 conveyance turns up in HMLR’s file and its plan includes the farmhouse plot with a good root behind it, S5 and S1 fall to 0.
- Notice in 1983 (C). If the WA240304 file shows notice served on Mary (Nancy) Williams, in occupation, before 23 February 1983, S2 falls to 0.
- The 1988 orders (D). If the court records show one court, one order and an ordinary sequence, S6 falls to 0.
- Timing. If more dated records are added to the board and the black–white gap stays short of significance, the timing factor should be dropped from the model altogether.
- The controls. If an independent reader scores the controls at 5 or more, the rubric is too loose to separate anything.
Limits
- We designed the rubric after reading the documents, and we chose which documents were “case” and which “control”. Both are sources of bias. The controls are few (three).
- S5 (text gap) partly measures the family archive’s own gaps and ordinary destruction under retention policies, not anyone’s conduct.
- The scores are ours. They are not a statistical estimate of fraud, and a higher number is not a finding of anything.
- Records are read as of 20 October 2026; the wiki changes often. Data: model.json and timing-test.json.